Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Market liquidity affect the future market trend (1)

 Affect the future stock market liquidity to
Report Summary:
a liquidity-related variables and stock market analysis
Second, the impact of stock market funds face
three other factors, and other relevant market and the stock market
four factors from the above analysis of the current status of the stock market
V. CONCLUSIONS
a liquidity-related variables and stock market analysis stock market as an important
capital market, of course, can not do without the participation of funds , the amount of funds involved in the market determines the level of activity, the macroeconomic side or the adequacy of liquidity to a large extent also affected the operation of the stock market. These include liquidity variables: money supply, M1, M2, credit data, etc. .
we look at the amount of narrow money supply M1 and the Shanghai index chart
s From the graph we can see, the stock market and the growth rate of money supply chivalry have a more significant relationship, in particular, Since 2005, the stock market with the M1 growth rate to maintain a very close contact, usually M1 growth rate and stock market trends are running the same direction, and M1 also showed a certain amount of the previous role. In addition to 02 years without obvious mm04 contact, the other time has a very strong linkage effects.
rate of credit growth and credit growth
s the impact of the stock market, but also the change from M1 to the analysis, credit data seriously by the government's macro the impact of economic policies, in particular, the central bank's credit policy, credit by conduction effect of changes in M1, M2 change. Therefore, to analyze the relationship between credit growth and stock market, we can still from the stock market and to understand the relationship between M1.
Summary of the points from the above
M1, credit growth and other indicators of response to market liquidity variables, we can conclude that these variables and the stock market maintained a strong run connectivity.
M1, from the above chart we It can be seen, in fact, M1 has a strong cyclical growth, the cycle was about 3-4 years, so its periodic fluctuations in the stock market can be found on the warning, which enable us to analyze important consideration when the stock market run changes in these variables.

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